“Drive for show, putt for dough?” How much has Eveliina Salonen’s putting held her back over the past 2 years?
TL;DR: at the rate Eveliina Salonen is currently putting compared to her 2024/2025 putting percentages she would have a 2025 World Championship, a Finnish National Title and the 2024 European Open (Major) would go to playoff.
Kevin from Run it Disc Golf here. If you’ve seen any of my earlier posts you know I am very into data and analysis around disc golf. If this kind of analysis is interesting to you check out runitdiscgolf.com or search Run it Disc Golf in the app stores. Score predictions for your tournaments and tournament/course breakdowns powered by models like this one.
With her win at Ledgestone (by 8 strokes) Eveliina Salonen is putting the best golf of her career. I decided to take a look at what tournaments would have flipped to wins over the past 2 years.
For a little bit of context her putting bottomed out near 50% in late 2025 (49% at both Pro Worlds and Finnish Nationals), then recovered to a career-best high-70s over her last several events. At the top of that run she reeled off three straight tournaments at 81-83% from circle 1 in June and July (winning the European Open and Ale, losing Swedish only in a playoff), her hottest stretch on record.
On every event she lost I applied her current C1 rate to the exact # of putts. If she had 40 circle 1 putts and her current rate is 78%, that’s about 31 expected makes and every make above what she actually sank counts as one stroke saved. Then I compared the new total to the winning score. If she putted better than her current rate in an event, it goes negative and counts against her. In her closest losses (see below) they don’t flip because she putted 70 to 74% in those. “Current rate” is her last 3 events (~78% C1), not a season average and the three clean wins still flip even at her lower full-season number.
At her current form, these tournaments change:
Clean wins:
2025 Pro Worlds (Major): putted 49% C1, lost by 10
2025 Finnish Nationals: 49%, lost by 4
2024 Turku Open: 63%, lost by 2
Playoff potential (flips by ~1 stroke, a coin flip, not a clean win):
2024 European Open (Major): 57%, lost by 7
Some of her closest losses do NOT flip. These were all events where she putted 70 to 74%.
Music City (+2)
Supreme Flight (playoff)
2024 US Women’s (+5)
2024 Throw Pink (+7)
And if you run it at her peak (82% from June to July):
2024 European Open (Major): upgrades from a coin flip to a clean win
2025 Green Mountain and 2025 Music City are within a stroke but off much bigger margins so playoff at best.
I also ran it on her wins, to make sure the model isn’t rigged to only help her. None of them flip to losses. The closest is the 2026 European Open: she won by 4 putting 83% C1, and at her current rate that shrinks to about a 2-shot win, so her hot putting was worth roughly half that margin. Every other win she either took by a lot (Ale by 15) or putted below her current rate, so the model only makes those safer.
Thoughts?
