Predict your disc golf score

Every disc golf app will tell you what you shot. Almost none will tell you what you are going to shoot, which is the number you actually want the week before an event.

Here is the difference and why it is harder than it sounds.

Your rating is not a predicted score

A PDGA rating is a single number summarizing how you have scored across every course you have played in the last twelve months. It is an average of averages. It cannot tell you what a 950 rated round looks like at the specific course you are about to play, because “950 rated” means a different raw score at every course and on every layout.

Two players with identical 950 ratings can have very different expected scores on the same tight wooded course, because one of them has been posting those rounds on open bomber layouts and the other has not.

What a real prediction needs

Three things, and you need all three.

Your scoring history, round by round, against courses of known difficulty. Not your average. The distribution, because how much you vary matters as much as where you center.

The course, hole by hole. Par and length are the starting point, not the answer. What the field has actually scored on hole 4 tells you more than the fact that hole 4 is 380 feet.

The specific layout. Tournament layouts move. Same course, different tee pads, different pin positions, different score. Predicting off the wrong layout is how you get a number that is confidently wrong.

Where the honesty lives

Any prediction that comes without a range is hiding something. A model can be well calibrated about uncertainty and still be bad at ranking who beats who, and those are genuinely different problems. Run It shows you the range, and after the event you can see what it expected versus what happened.

I would rather publish a miss than round it off. There are writeups on the news page where the model got it wrong and I said so.

Getting a prediction for your next round

Download Run It, link your PDGA number, and pick the course and layout you are playing. You get a predicted score, a range, and a hole by hole plan. The first two game plans are free.