How much of this is solid, hole by hole. Worlds moved the tees, so
each hole is graded by what is actually behind it. 23 have a full
projection from 600 to 2,900 rated rounds at that exact length. 8 more
sit within about 30 ft of a measured length, close enough that the same
hole's history carries. 5 are blank and named, either because the tee
moved beyond what the data reaches or because the par changed and nothing
has been played under it. No round total anywhere on this sheet: the blanks
would be doing the arithmetic for you.
Northwood Black Long
Par 66 · 10,183 ft · rounds 1, 3, 5 · 14 of 18 read
A damage course. The two long par 5s are where your week is decided, and neither is a birdie hole for anybody.
Against 1035, this course is the whole gap. Run every readable hole
at 1035, where Leiviska and Rovere sit, and they take about 1.1 strokes
a round out of you here. Over three rounds that is 3.2 of the 3.6 they
gain on you all week. It is not short game and it is not one blow-up: it
is 12, 13, 18, 15 and 2, roughly a tenth of a stroke each, on the
long holes.
Where it bites
12PAR 5
6.2 projected1,050 ft
birdie 2%bogey or worse 66%double+ 24%
The hardest hole either course has, and the one the model is most sure about. A quarter of rounds at your rating leave here with a double or worse. Par is a win.
14PAR 5
6.0 projected892 ft
birdie 8%bogey or worse 56%double+ 22%
Looks reachable at 892 and plays like 12. Same double rate. These two holes are the difference between a good week and a long one.
18PAR 4
4.4 projected702 ft
birdie 12%bogey or worse 31%
Hardest closer of the two courses. Three times more likely to cost you a shot than gain one.
Go get these
9PAR 4
3.5 projected564 ft
birdie 53%bogey or worse 8%
Best hole on the course. Worth knowing that Worlds plays it 168 ft shorter than Ledgestone did, which is what turns it into a scoring hole.
16PAR 3
2.7 projected331 ft
birdie 36%bogey or worse 10%
Cleanest birdie look on the back. Almost no downside.
Both ways
8PAR 3
2.7 projected308 ft
birdie 36%bogey or worse 23%
Birdies well but bites nearly as often. One of the few holes here where the aggressive line is a real decision rather than an obvious one.
15PAR 4
4.1 projected650 ft
birdie 34%bogey or worse 24%
Scored differently, and we will not guess
5 is a par 3 this week, not the par 4 you played, and 6 is a
par 4 off the short pad rather than the par 5 at 947. Both are holes you
know, but nobody has played either under the new par, and par changes how a
hole gets attacked. There is scoring history at those lengths under the old
par, and it is tempting to carry it across; we are not going to, because that
would be a guess dressed as a number. Worth walking with fresh eyes.
Also read, off the nearest measured length
Worlds tees these within about 30 ft of a length with real
history, so the numbers hold even though the exact tee is new.
Hole
Par
Ft
Expected
Birdie
Bogey+
Rounds
13
4
636
4.13
25%
30%
1,888
7
3
348
2.83
30%
11%
2,383
No read on 4 or 17 either. Both tees moved further than
the data reaches: 4 is 39 ft longer than any measured length, 17 is 47 ft
longer on a par 3, too big a jump to carry the old numbers across. With 5
and 6 that is four blanks here.
birdie or better par bogey double or worse
Sunset Hills
Par 61 · 7,453 ft · rounds 2, 4 · 17 of 18 read
The opposite course. Read properly, not a single hole here projects over par, including 15, which the model briefly had wrong. Wednesday and Friday are where you make ground.
Against that same 1035 band, this one is nearly a wash. About
0.2 strokes a round, and you are level or better than them on
7 of the 17 readable holes. Whatever separates you from the top of
this field, almost none of it is here.
Go get these
6PAR 5
4.6 projected712 ft
birdie 62%bogey or worse 17%
Best birdie odds of all 36 holes.
9PAR 4
3.5 projected531 ft
birdie 61%bogey or worse 13%
5PAR 3
2.1 projected246 ft
birdie 58%bogey or worse 10%
10PAR 3
2.4 projected302 ft
birdie 54%bogey or worse 10%
Care on these
3PAR 3
2.9 projected384 ft
birdie 12%bogey or worse 24%
The one par 3 here that does not give. Twice as likely to cost a shot as gain one, on a course where everything else is a chance.
13PAR 3
2.7 projected279 ft
birdie 43%bogey or worse 27%
279 ft with the highest bogey rate on the course. Short does not mean safe here.
Also read, off the nearest measured length
Worlds tees these within about 30 ft of a length with real
history, so the numbers hold even though the exact tee is new.
Hole
Par
Ft
Expected
Birdie
Bogey+
Rounds
1
4
633
3.68
41%
10%
1,414
11
3
394
2.66
39%
4%
1,149
15
4
531
3.81
38%
19%
1,414
16
3
318
2.75
29%
3%
1,414
17
4
502
3.85
29%
11%
1,414
18
3
354
2.67
35%
2%
1,414
No read on 7 only. Worlds plays it 42 ft shorter than
any measured length, so it should be easier than the old numbers, but by how
much is a guess.
birdie or better par bogey double or worse
The rest of the field
All 171 registered MP40 players through the same model
#
Player
Rating
1
Bradley Williams
1031
2
Cale Leiviska
1035
3
Joe Rovere
1035
4
Nate Sexton
1023
5
Scott Withers
1029
6
Dana Vicich
1019
7
Paul Oman
1021
8
Dustin Keegan
1020
It has you 4th of the 171 registered, and ahead of Scott Withers, who is rated six points above you. That is the model reading your hole by hole history rather than your rating.
